Worms, Pigs, and Escorts - Oh My!
Good betting week last week, fun games around the country, and some bizarre ones coming up - Things are getting good!
The Film Room
Reviewing Week 7 Games & Picks
Don’t let the kid get hot! A huge 4-0 week has us up to 16-11 on the season which means I’ve made you a pretty penny! Hopefully you’ve been following and cheering along. LSU and high scoring games a tale as old as time - them and Auburn got over the 60 we needed. I retreat from Knoxville saddened by a loss, but find some solace in Tennessee and Texas A&M easily going under the 55 total. Sidenote: if you ever get a chance to go to Knoxville for a game, I highly suggest it. Vol fans were welcoming, kept us fed and hydrated, Neyland Stadium (named after an Aggie by the way) was loud and reminded me why I love college football.
I was expecting more from the Cougars of BYU but their 11 points were enough to go over the 53 total with TCU’s backup QB throwing for 4 TDs on Saturday. Oklahoma State won a thriller against Kansas outright, which means they easily covered as 3 point underdogs.
For the big games to review, USC got stomped by ND 48-20. The Trojans star QB Caleb Williams (last year’s Heisman Winner) had 4 turnovers, including a fumble that was returned for a TD by the Irish. With short fields from the turnovers, the Irish didn’t have to do much to score against a porous USC Defense. A good bounce back win for ND after dropping one to Louisville the week prior.
The UNC and Miami matchup was highlighted by impressive passing performances by both QBs. The final score of 41-31 in favor of the Tar Heels made this one seem closer than it really was. A 21-point 3rd Quarter by UNC put this one out of reach and they took a 21 point lead early in the 4th Quarter. Miami scored a couple times late to make the final score seem closer than it was.
It’s been awfully quiet around the Colorado Buffalos huh? Deion fans close your eyes! The Buffs lost a triple OT thriller to STANFORD. Colorado took a 29 point lead into halftime, but couldn’t seem to guard Stanford WR Elic Ayomanor in the 2nd Half who had 13 catches for 294 yards and 3 TDs. An entire team would be happy with that stat line, much less 1 player. Pretty bad look for Deion and the Buffs who were 2 TD favorites at home and lost this one. They have 5 tough games remaining and need to win 2 to be eligible for a bowl - that would be big for Year 1 under Deion.
The Biggest matchup of the weekend delivered as Washington took down Oregon 36-33. The QB duel lived up to the hype with 640 passing yards and 6 TDs between the two QBs. Oregon actually outgained Washington on offense by 130 yards but a couple of failed 4th down conversions came back to bite Oregon. 2 good teams that will likely see each other again in the PAC12 championship game and for what is likely to be a playoff spot.
Not a super important game but one with wild stats. The Duke Blue Devils beat NC State 24-3. A super rainy game led to a sloppy game, but Duke’s backup QB is starting in place of injured Riley Leonard. He completed 4 of 12 passes, FOUR! For 107 yards and 2TDs. That has to be the most efficient passing day of all time. Even better, 2 of Duke’s plays accounted for over 50% of their total offensive yards. Just a weird one in Durham - Duke goes to Tallahassee to take on #4 Florida State this weekend, and they should have Riley Leonard back.
The Warm Up
Some Content to get the blood flowing
I definitely get upset at times (mostly on the golf course), but I’m thankful my job doesn’t lead to me physically injuring myself. South Carolina Head Coach Shane Beamer broke his foot “kicking something [he] shouldn’t have” after the Gamecocks lost a frustrating game at home against Florida last weekend. Check out his admittance in a media interview.
ALTERNATE JERSEY ALERT!!!! The Western Kentucky Hilltoppers are rocking alternate helmets on Tuesday 10/24 as they host Liberty. Each position group has a different sticker of their mascot, Big Red, matching what the position does. I think my favorite is the defensive back waving his arms after an incomplete pass.
I’ve been trying to give you reasons to watch weeknight college football and here’s another one. Rice has an assistant coach that hands out handfuls of sour gummy worms to players on the sideline. The mustache, the aviators, gloves for food safety, and do I spy a mullet? This guy is perfect for this job, and I think I’m jealous of his career path? Rice won 42-10 by the way, so they might be on to something here.
The Scouting Report
Story lines to watch in Week 8
A fun one early for you. Minnesota and Iowa face off in Iowa City and feature the lowest point total (30) between two teams ever since they started tracking games in 1995. That means no 2 teams have ever been expected to score this few points in a game. For your own good, I advise you to not watch this one. These two teams also play for one of the oldest trophies in college football, pictured below. The Hawkeyes and Golden Gophers battle it out every year for the Floyd of Rosedale Bronze pig. The swine weights in at an impressive 98 pounds. Back in the 1930’s an actual pig wagered as a peace offering to quell some unfortunately racist tensions between the schools involving some players. We’ll see who takes Floyd home on Saturday at 2:30 CST.
Big Noon Kickoff in the Big 10 will have most eyes across the country as #3 Ohio State hosts #7 Penn State. Both teams still have Michigan on their schedules, but winning this one will put them in a better position to win the Big 10 East, which is the stronger of the 2 divisions within the Big 10. Ohio State comes in at a 4.5 point favorite over the Nittany Lions. Catch it on FOX at 11AM CST.
Air Force and Navy face off at 11AM CST on CBS. These games often don’t carry much weight in the race to a national championship, but they are a fun story in the gambling world. Games between 2 service academies (i.e. Army, Navy, Air Force) are historically very low scoring due to the option offense and slow tempo. Basically, these teams all just run the ball and are in no hurry to do so. That leads to the Under (i.e. the whole game going under the projected point total) having a record of 43-10-1 in these matchups since 2005. This year’s total has dropped all the way down to 33 points, at the beginning of the week it was higher, closer to 38. News that Air Force’s starting QB is out doesn’t help and neither does the new clock rules. If you have some guts you can take the under here - I might just for fun.
Tennessee and Alabama face off at 2:30 on CBS. A rematch of last year’s thrilling game that ended 52-49 in favor of the Tennessee Volunteers. Ranked #5 and #6 at the time, this led to Tennessee students storming Neyland stadium as they lit up cigars (as is tradition in this rivalry) and ripped down the goal posts. You can enjoy some of the chaos here. However, the two teams facing off this year in Tuscaloosa, AL are very different and I don’t think the game won’t be nearly as entertaining. I expect a slow and low scoring game, but a very important one for the SEC.
Staying in the SEC, Ole Miss travels to the Plains to take on Auburn, where Ole Miss comes in as a touchdown favorite - but that’s not the fun part of this game. Hugh Freeze (Auburn’s Head Coach) used to coach at Ole Miss before having to resign amidst allegations of…well many things, but most notoriously, calling an escort service on a university phone. So I’m sure Hugh will want to stick it to his former employer, but I wouldn’t expect the Tigers to be able to stick around with the Rebels in this one.
Last one, Utah travels to LA to take on USC Trojans. Looks like Cam Rising is done for the year and Utah will be bootstrapping it with whatever backup they trot out. They look a lot better at home, but USC looks like trash against good Defenses which is all Utah has going for them. This is a Top 20 matchup of 2 teams that I’m not sure will be ranked that high by the time the season is over.
Gambling Picks
My picks and leans for the week
Duke (+14.5) - I think this is too many points. As long as you can get this under 2 TD’s I feel good about this Duke defense slowing down the Florida State Seminoles. I feel especially good if Riley Leonard is playing.
Michigan Team Total Over 34.5 Points - Michigan should crush the Spartans here. Michigan State is on quit watch and Michigan has taken care of business every game so far. Look for the Wolverines to stick it to their in-state rivals and put up 40+.
Tennessee (+9.5) - Tennessee and Alabama are not the teams they were last year. Both played A&M within 1 score, I expect the same thing to happen here. I expect a low score, 1-score game
Coastal Carolina/Arkansas State Under 60 - Coastal plays slow and Arkansas State is just bad. Look for Coastal to keep this one low.
If I come up with a pick on another game, I’ll post those to Twitter. Give me a follow! @HerbiesHuddle
Readyyyyyyyy Break
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