Heart Breaks Incoming
Conference Championship week leads to lots of emotions, this year to be full of heart breaks and big victories.
The Film Room
Reviewing Week 13 Games & Picks
In the final full week of games, we went 2-1 to go 29-20 on the season. A late FG by Ball State meant we didn’t cover the Miami-OH game for the loss of the week. Florida State had a slow start to the game but a strong 2nd Half got the Noles to cover against the Florida Gators. A wild game in Ann Arbor, but a few key field goals for Michigan kept us over the number against Ohio State. One more week in the regular season and we’ll be in the green! Hope you’ve enjoyed following Herbie’s picks.
We kicked off the week on Thursday with the Egg bowl between Ole Miss and Mississippi State. Ole Miss was a big favorite but looked a little lackluster winning 17-7. I prefer when this one has some drama, but Ole Miss was happy to cruise to get their 2nd 10-win season in the last 3 years.
Nebraska took on Iowa and these Big 10 West managed to go under the record-low total of 24.5 points with a final score of 13-10. The craziest part of this was Iowa threw an interception with 40 seconds left in the game tied 10-10 and still managed to win in regulation. Nebraska threw a pick right back and Iowa had enough time to get into field goal range to kick a game winner.
Ohio State and Michigan had a tight battle that went back and forth, with Michigan leading most of the game, but Ohio State never being too far behind. A couple interceptions by Ohio State QB Kyle McCord proved costly, but the Buckeyes played well enough to keep themselves in the game.
Texas hosted Texas Tech on Friday night and easily took care of business winning 57-7. The Longhorn faithful got a nice surprise getting to see the possible future with Arch Manning (Nephew of NFL great’s Eli and Peyton) getting some playing time at the end of the game.
To set up the Big 12 Championship, Oklahoma State had a comeback victory in Double Overtime against BYU. It was all Ollie Gordon (Oklahoma St. Running back) who ended the game with 5TDs. A big win for the Pokes to keep them in the race for a Big 12 pennant. They’ll try to send Texas to the SEC without a championship.
Oregon beat up on Oregon State in the Civil War Rivalry. Oregon needed this one to keep their playoff hopes alive. They have been getting better all year and have a chance to overcome their lone loss to Washington this weekend for a chance at a playoff birth.
On the other side of the Pac 12 title race, Washington needed a game-winning field goal as time expired to win the Apple Cup. As a 15-point favorite this continues a trend of disappointing performances down the stretch by the Huskies. They’ll need their A-game this weekend as they take on Oregon in the Pac 12 title game.
Alabama and Auburn played in yet another instant classic in this iteration of the Iron Bowl. Alabama, as a 2 Touchdown favorite, outgained Auburn by 120 yards, was +3 on the Turnover Margin, and had more Time of Possession and still needed this miracle pass on 4th & Goal from the 31. A game the Tide probably should’ve lost, but they survive in Jordan-Hare Stadium to keep their playoff chances alive, if they can take down Georgia this weekend in the SEC Championship game.
Georgia Tech gave Georgia a good fight keeping the game within 1 score with a final of 31-23. Georgia has had a handful of too close for comfort games this year, proving they aren’t the juggernaut of the last couple of years.
The Warm Up
Some Content to get the blood flowing
You have to watch this week’s iteration of questionable things Commentators say: Watch the video here.
Bowls are always doing anything they can to get eyes on their game, and the new Pop Tarts Bowl is featuring an edible mascot? A different path from the Duke’s Mayo Bowl that dumps a cooler of mayonnaise on the winning coach’s head. I’ll be tuning into this one, partially because it is formerly the Cheez-It Bowl which has a history of just being weird. Like the 2018 matchup between TCU and Cal which featured 9 turnovers between the two teams.
The Scouting Report
Story lines to watch in Week 14
As more coaches get hired, fired, and retired. We’ll keep you up to date with some important movement. The most entertaining so far was Texas A&M’s coaching search that started to leak rumors of Kentucky Head Coach Mark Stoops being the next coach in College Station. This led to an uproar of negative reactions from the fan base and players and the Aggies ultimately pulling the plug on this decision. Local Aggie network, TexAgs, has a good tracker of each position as it gets filled or becomes available and citing a “Revolt” for the “Mark Stoops Era” in College Station is fitting but also hilarious.
Conference Championship Previews
In chronological order, starting with Friday evening.
Conference USA Championship: Williams Stadium, Lynchburg, VA. Friday 12/1 6PM CST on CBS Sports Network.
Liberty gets this game at home against New Mexico State, who’s had an incredible year. Liberty needs to win to have a shot at a New Year’s 6 Bowl, they’ll be trying to impress the voters this week as they need to be the highest ranked Group of 5 school. This one should actually be pretty fun to watch.
Herbies Hunch: Liberty rolls and covers the 11 point spread.
Pac 12 Championship: Allegiant Stadium, Las Vegas, NV. Friday 12/1 7PM CST on ABC.
Washington and Oregon face off in a rematch where Washington won back in October 36-33. The winner of this game likely gets into the Playoff. If Washington wins, they’ll be in for sure. If Oregon wins, they’ll likely be in but a Florida State loss and Georgia Win would probably make their path easier. When there are rematches, the team that lost round 1 almost always wins round 2. Advantage Oregon there. You should definitely tune into this one, it’ll be a fast game on turf instead of any chance of nasty Northwest weather. Washington seemed to have gotten worse as the season went on and Oregon is surging, but I expect Washington to get right for this game and make it another thriller.
Herbie’s Hunch: Oregon wins, but Washington Covers the 10 point spread. I’d also expect this one to go over the total of 66.
Big 12 Championship: AT&T Stadium, Arlington, TX. Saturday 12/2 11AM CST on ABC.
Texas takes on Oklahoma State as the 2nd largest favorite this weekend. Texas is favored by 15 or more points depending on where you look. With a total set at 55 points. Vegas expects Texas to control this one and win by more than 2 scores. I expect Oklahoma State to try to control this game on the ground and keep the ball away from the Longhorns.
Herbie’s Hunch: Texas should win this one easily with their D Line leading the way in stopping the Oklahoma State rushing attack.
MAC Championship: Ford Field, Detroit, MI. Saturday 12/2 11AM CST on ESPN.
Toledo takes on Miami-OH in a game that will be a good alternate watch should the Texas vs Oklahoma State game gets out of hand early. Toledo is an explosive offensive team facing a stiff defense in Miami.
Herbie’s Hunch: I expect this one to be close, take Miami-OH to lean on their defense to cover the 8 point spread.
Mountain West Championship: Allegiant Stadium, Las Vegas, NV. Saturday 12/2 2PM CST on FOX.
Boise St had a strong 2nd half of the season to make it to the championship game to take on the Runnin’ Rebels of UNLV. A de-facto home game for UNLV, who have a chance to win more games this year than they did in the last 2 years combined. Boise State is a small 2.5 or 3 point favorite in this one.
Herbie’s Hunch: I’d take UNLV with some points to spare here, but expect an entertaining one out west.
SEC Championship: Mercedes-Benz Stadium, Atlanta, GA. Saturday 12/2 3PM CST on CBS.
One of the big hitters this weekend, Georgia faces Alabama in the SEC championship game. A rematch of the 2021 SEC championship game that saw the Crimson tide win 41-24 but Georgia got the last laugh in the national championship rematch, beating Alabama 33-18. Alabama had a slow start to the year, especially offensively but have righted the ship. But the Georgia Bulldogs are still the back-to-back reigning champs and hold a 6 point line going into Saturday.
Herbie’s Hunch: I think Georgia wins this one, being a more well-rounded team with probably the best defense Alabama has faced all year by a long shot, should get the Dogs a victory.
American Athletic Championship: Yulman Stadium, New Orleans, LA. Saturday 12/2 3PM CST on ABC.
Tulane hosts SMU in NOLA this weekend for the AAC championship. SMU lost their starting QB to a broken leg in their last regular season game. That unfortunately takes a lot of excitement away from this matchup. I still think SMU can muster up some points, but ultimately veteran leadership of Tulane QB Michael Pratt should prove valuable here.
Herbie’s Hunch: Tulane wins this one, taking advantage of the backup Pony QB.
Sun Belt Championship: Veteran’s Memorial Stadium, Troy, AL. Saturday 12/2 3PM CST on ESPN.
Troy gets to host App State in this championship game. To be honest, I don’t know much about these teams and you can probably pass on watching this one.
Herbie’s hunch: Troy wins this one, but it could be a fun shootout.
Big 10 Championship: Lucas Oil Stadium, Indianapolis, IN. Saturday 12/2 7PM CST on FOX.
Iowa and Michigan face off in the Big 10 championship game. No one is giving Iowa a chance, and they probably shouldn’t. Michigan has a strong defense and Iowa has close to 0 offensive production. Michigan gets Jim Harbaugh back on the sideline and is a 22 point favorite with an over/under of 35. I think my favorite part of this game is Iowa’s 1st Team Total is 0.5 points. If you want a fun thing to root for, an agonizing watch just begging for a field goal - take the Over on Iowa’s 1st Half Team Total.
Herbie’s Hunch: Michigan should rout the Hawkeyes here, but they’ll be on cruise control to get into the Playoff healthy. Michigan wins easily.
ACC Championship: Bank of America Stadium, Charlotte, NC. Saturday 12/2 7PM CST on ABC.
Florida State went undefeated to make it here and have a shot at the playoff, but they need to win this one without star QB Jordan Travis. If the Noles lose they’ll be left out of the playoff. Louisville is a 2 point underdog and have had an up and down season. Some big wins and confusing losses. Louisville lives and dies by big plays on both sides of the ball, we’ll see if FSU can take advantage of some of those opportunities on offense.
Herbie’s Hunch: Florida State’s defense can carry them again to keep this one close. Another week of prep for FSU’s backup QB. Take FSU to cover the small spread.
Gambling Picks
My picks and leans for the week
Liberty (-11) - Covered this above, but they should rout the NMSU Aggies here.
UNLV (ML +120) - I don’t even want the points, give me the Runnin’ Rebels to win straight up
Florida State/Louisville (Over 46.5) - This dropped too far, Jeff Brohm will scheme up some big plays for Louisville and I expect Florida State to score enough to send this one over the total.
Even if we go 0-3 this week, we’ll be in the green - that’s a great way to start for the inaugural season of Herbie’s
If I come up with a pick on another game, I’ll post those to Twitter. Give me a follow! @HerbiesHuddle
Readyyyyyyyy Break
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